Lock-up expiry is the single most underrated risk in mega-IPO investing. Most retail coverage focuses on first-day pops and quarterly earnings, but the supply events that determine medium-term performance happen on predetermined dates — T+90 for strategic partners, T+180 for institutional holders, T+365 for insider tranches. This article walks through historical patterns from comparable mega-IPOs (Coinbase, Snowflake, Rivian, Tesla 2010) and applies the framework to hypothetical SpaceX scenarios. The takeaway: lock-up release dynamics are knowable in advance, but the market consistently underprices them.
The Coinbase pattern
Coinbase listed at $381 in April 2021. By the T+180 lock-up release in October 2021, the stock was trading around $300. Six months later it was at $130. The cumulative drawdown from listing to T+365 was roughly 65%. Some of this was a crypto cycle, but a meaningful fraction was structural: as insiders and pre-IPO holders gained the legal ability to sell, supply systematically outpaced demand. The lesson is not that Coinbase was a bad business — it was that the supply path was poorly modeled by the IPO market.
The Snowflake counter-pattern
Snowflake listed at $120 in September 2020 and pop'd to $250 on day one. By T+180 it was trading around $300. The lock-up release did not crater the stock — but it did mark the beginning of a slow trim that took the multiple from 100x revenue down toward 30x over the following 18 months. Snowflake is the canonical example of a high-quality mega-IPO where lock-up dynamics did not destroy the stock but did cap the multiple expansion that bulls had priced in. The supply path was a ceiling, not a floor.
The Rivian extreme case
Rivian listed at $78 in November 2021. By T+180 it was at $30. By T+365 it was at $20. The post-lockup carnage was extreme because the cap structure could not absorb the float that came online — there were too many pre-IPO holders with too much paper-gain incentive to sell, and not enough institutional buyers willing to underwrite the operational story at scale. This is the case-study every pre-IPO investor in a hypothetical SpaceX should read most carefully, because the float dynamics are structurally similar.
Applying the framework to SpaceX scenarios
In the baseline scenario modeled across this site, the T+90 window unlocks roughly 7.5% of total shares (named strategic holders), T+180 unlocks roughly 18%, and T+365 unlocks the largest tranche at roughly 33%. None of these numbers are confirmed; they are scenario assumptions. But the framework holds regardless: serious pre-IPO investors should model the demand-to-absorb ratio at each window, not the headline supply number alone. A 33% unlock with deep institutional demand is fine. A 7.5% unlock with thin demand can crater the stock. The simulator on this site lets you walk this analysis interactively, but the framework is what matters — bring it to every mega-IPO you analyze, hypothetical or real.